Former President Donald Trump seems to have regained his lead in polling following an initial boost in support for Vice President Kamala Harris, which occurred after President Joe Biden announced the termination of his reelection campaign in July.
Harris has experienced a month of predominantly positive coverage in various mainstream media outlets, which generally exhibit a left-leaning editorial stance, while Trump’s media portrayal has been largely unfavorable. As reported by Axios, earlier polling from the Cook Political Report indicated that Harris was ahead of Trump in states such as Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Additionally, a recent poll from the New York Times/Siena College revealed that Harris held a slight advantage in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Nevertheless, a more current poll conducted by Navigator Research, released on Tuesday, suggests that the race is effectively a tie in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Specifically, Trump leads Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46% to 45%) and by two points in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%), while the other three states are closely contested. This Navigator survey aligns with the RealClearPolitics polling average for battleground states, which also encompasses Nevada and Georgia.
The Vice President’s performance in these critical states surpasses that of Biden prior to his exit from the race last month. Before Biden’s withdrawal on July 21, Trump maintained a lead of over 4 percent across the seven states included in the RCP average, with his margin increasing as the announcement date neared. On Monday, a co-founder of a prominent super PAC backing Harris attracted attention by suggesting that her polling figures may be inflated.
According to a report by Reuters, Chauncey McLean, the president of Future Forward, a super PAC that has garnered hundreds of millions in support of Harris during this election cycle, addressed an event in Chicago on Monday that was linked to the Democratic National Convention.
“Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public,” said McLean, who rarely speaks in public.
McLean indicates that Kamala Harris received significant backing from young voters of color following Biden’s withdrawal, which has rejuvenated the Democratic outlook in Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—regions that Democrats had largely overlooked in the concluding days of Biden’s campaign.
“She has multiple paths,” with seven states in play, he said, according to Reuters. He added that voters want more details about her policy positions, according to internal polling. He asserts that voters are not interested in “white papers” or empty platitudes.
They are seeking specific instances that illustrate how Harris may diverge from Biden, as well as her strategies for enhancing their economic circumstances. “We have [the race] tight as a tick,” he added.
On Monday, Van Jones, a contributor for CNN and a former official in the Obama administration, voiced his apprehensions regarding the situation. He noted that despite receiving extensive favorable coverage from mainstream media over the past month and steering clear of a previous press conference, Vice President Harris has only managed to maintain a position that is nearly equal to that of former President Donald Trump in the critical states they both aim to secure.
“We don’t wanna be tied. I don’t like being tied with Donald Trump because we’ve had now 20 plus days of positive press. He’s been falling down the stairs, slipping on banana peels and poking himself in the eyeball. We should not be tied. We want to pull ahead,” Jones said. “That’s our opportunity this week.”
