The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll revealed that former President Donald Trump has surpassed President Joe Biden with 40% to 38% support, indicating a close race in a highly unpredictable political landscape. The survey also highlighted a significant number of voters who were discontent with the current choices and open to persuasion, underscoring the fluidity of the upcoming election.
“Nearly eight months out, the election is not set yet. One in four of those surveyed said they might change their minds before November. That unsettled sentiment was bipartisan, including 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters,” USA Today reported.
The outlet added: “Most of those now backing a third-party candidate said they were open to changing their minds, among them 75% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters and 94% of Jill Stein supporters. That signals the potential erosion that independent candidates often see as Election Day nears. It also provides a big opportunity for each major-party candidate to make his case to voters who are now reluctant to support him and to convince those voters that it would be dangerous or unwise to back the other guy.”
Concerns regarding immigration and challenges to democracy closely followed voters’ prioritization of inflation and the economy, which accounted for 29% of their vote.
Abortion was the only other issue that reached double digits, with a 10% ranking. A recent survey indicates that Biden is falling further behind Trump on the issues that voters care most about in this election year. According to the ABC/Ipsos poll conducted between March 8 and 9, 36% of respondents expressed trust in Trump, compared to 33% who trusted Biden. Meanwhile, 30% stated that neither candidate had their trust.
When asked about their opinions on the job performance of both presidents, Trump received higher ratings than Biden on all issues except abortion and climate change. Trump garnered a favorable rating of 49% on the economy, while Biden received 37%. In terms of inflation, 45% approved of Trump, while only 31% approved of Biden. Regarding crime, Trump was viewed more favorably at 41% compared to Biden’s 35%.
Similarly, on the topic of immigration, the former president received a favorable rating of 45%, while Biden trailed behind with 29%. A recent analysis suggests that post-State of the Union Address polling does not align with the enthusiastic portrayal of Biden’s performance by fellow Democrats and the majority of the mainstream media.
In an article for the Washington Post, Aaron Blake noted that “it is not as evident that the American public perceived the home run that others did,” and mentioned that instant post-speech polling from CNN and a few other outlets did not reflect the usual level of positivity.
Biden’s speech received positive feedback from 65 percent of viewers, as indicated by an instant CNN poll that his campaign and various media outlets have emphasized. Moreover, the viewers’ perspective on the country’s trajectory experienced a significant shift of 17 points. Following the speech, 62 percent of viewers now believe that the country is heading in the right direction, compared to the previous 45 percent, Blake wrote, adding:
“Both of these are true. What’s also true is that State of the Union speeches almost always receive strongly favorable views, in part because viewership tends to draw disproportionately from their allies. The 65 percent who had a positive view of the speech was actually lower than any such speech CNN has polled in the past quarter-century — the previous low being Donald Trump’s 2018 address (70 percent).”
Thirty-five percent of respondents provided a “very” positive review, which was on par with last year’s rating of 34 percent, marking the lowest on record. Following closely behind were Biden’s 2022 speech and George W. Bush’s 2007 speech, with 41 percent of viewers giving each a “very” positive rating.
“The 17-point shift toward the country moving in the ‘right direction’ was also unremarkable, historically speaking. Dating back to Bill Clinton’s 1998 State of the Union address, viewers have shifted an average of 15 points toward that more optimistic view,” Blake wrote.
“Now we get to the caveat, and that’s that viewers Thursday were less aligned with the president than your average State of the Union audience — potentially because we’re in a campaign year or because questions about Biden’s ability to perform drew in more people who were skeptical of him,” he continued. “That appears to explain at least part of the poorer-than-normal reviews — but not all.”
