New registration data reveals a significant shift in Democrat voters in Pennsylvania, President Joe Biden’s birth state, as they are increasingly joining the Republican Party. This holds great significance for Biden’s potential reelection bid in 2024. Despite hailing Philadelphia campaign donors as the “backbone” of his presidential campaign, Democrats in Biden’s home state are abandoning his party in alarming numbers, posing a threat to his election hopes.
The State Department’s data shows that as of December 18, 35,589 Democrats have reregistered as Republicans, while only 15,622 Pennsylvania Republicans have switched to the Democratic Party. This trend was initially reported by Newsweek on Tuesday. Biden’s connection to Pennsylvania is further strengthened by his wife Jill’s roots in Montgomery County, and his granddaughter Maisy’s recent graduation from the University of Pennsylvania.
In an effort to address this growing unpopularity, the White House announced that Biden will be making his first visit to Philadelphia on January 6. Nathan Benefield, senior vice president of the Pennsylvania-based public policy think tank Commonwealth Foundation, warns that Biden’s standing in his home state is diminishing. Despite Pennsylvania being a swing state, polling indicates that Biden is facing unpopularity, with much of it attributed to his economic policies, known as “Bidenomics,” according to Benefield.
“Voters are saying they’re not happy with Bidenomics and the economy, and I think that’s reflected in the registration and some of the voting patterns,” he explained.
“Whether Trump and Biden are at the top of the ticket or not, I do think it’s going to be pretty much one of the closest states next year.”
Benefield proposed that there is a shift occurring within blue-collar Democrats in the state. Specifically, blue-collar Democrats in the western region have traditionally shown a preference for Republicans in presidential elections. This shift is now being observed in lower-level elections and is evident in their party registration.
State voter registration data also highlights a significant trend for both parties, with a notable number of voters disassociating themselves from party affiliation. More precisely, 20,908 Democrats and 18,927 Republicans have chosen to leave their respective party memberships.
In the 2020 election, Biden narrowly secured the state for the Democrats by a margin of only 1.2 percentage points, while Trump had won the state in 2016. Pennsylvania will have 19 electoral votes up for grabs in the 2024 election, one less than in 2020. The most recent polling data suggests that Biden is either tied with Trump or slightly behind. In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania was won by Biden with a margin of just under 80,000 votes.
